Michigan is just taking some baby steps when it comes to being a tourist destination — and that’s a good thing, says George Zimmermann, who heads up the state’s widely touted Pure Michigan effort.

Zimmermann points to a 2010 national survey asking Americans to say where they would like to visit, in which 8 percent named Michigan, earning it the 29th spot. He said, “That’s good news. It just shows how much upside we have; we are just scratching the surface (on tourism).”

Indeed, while indications point to growth in visitors and visitor spending this summer, those numbers are climbing out of a deep hole bored by the Great Recession. In 2009, visitor spending bottomed out at $15.12 billion, about $3 billion off of the high point of 2006, said Dan McCole, who studies travel at Michigan State University. (The industry is credited with about 142,000 jobs statewide.)

McCole and his colleagues at MSU projected in March that Michigan would see 4 percent growth in tourism spending — if something doesn’t happen.

“Gas prices are trending higher than when we issued our projection,” McCole said. “The story we think is going on with gas is that there is a tipping point where it will significantly affect travel. Where is that point?”

Probably higher than when Michigan last saw fuel prices near the $4 level, he explained.

“People value their vacations. It’s an expectation,” he said. “And there is some substitution factor. As some families decide not to travel (due to prices), they’ll be replaced (at Michigan venues) by families who would have traveled out of state but who are scaling back.”

Michigan also stands to gain this year, and beyond, due to the affluence factor.

“The people we’re expecting to make up the difference on travel are more affluent — the ‘haves,” McCole said.

If so, that’s just part of the plan for Zimmermann and his team at Travel Michigan, home of the highly praised “Pure Michigan” advertising campaign.

“In our national campaign, we’re going after more affluent travelers, those who take longer trips,” he said. “The farther someone travels, the longer they stay and more they spend. The cable networks eyed for high-income viewership. We’re going to be building a more affluent market.”

Though it’s only entering its third year, the national Pure Michigan effort is changing the face of tourism in the Upper Peninsula.

“We did 2,411 visitor intercept interviews last year,” said Dennis West of Northern Initiatives, a community development nonprofit in Marquette that aids small businesses. “We learned that the visitor base is much less Michigan than the historic norm. In the eastern UP, 57 percent of visitors were from Michigan, while in the western UP, it was 37 percent.”

Historically, says McCole, the vast majority of tourism traffic came from Michiganians visiting other parts of Michigan. West, McCole and Zimmermann all say the Pure Michigan campaign is changing that dynamic.

“The state never had to look afield for visitors before. Now it does,” McCole said. “We’re seeing lots of signs that Pure Michigan is drawing in out-of-staters. … Getting them to come here is one thing. They are usually pleasantly surprised on the first visit, which can lead to a second one. However, after that, we must focus on improving things to get return visits: airports, hotels, roads … infrastructure.”

Zimmermann points out that Michigan has seen improvement even while tourism policy has been in turmoil.

Earlier this year, Gov. Rick Snyder signed legislation to stabilize funding for Pure Michigan campaigns. “Now we are at a point where we can optimize the campaign,” Zimmermann said. “The last two years were up and down in funding, so we have not been able to do that. And we went national only in 2009 … we are at the beginning point.”

Over the Mackinac Bridge, Northern Initiatives is helping smaller communities band together to take advantage of the Pure Michigan campaign and build consumer knowledge of lesser known attractions such as Drummond Island, the mouth of the Two Hearted River off of M-123 and the Crisp Point Lighthouse west of Whitefish Point.

“It’s so challenging to find these really wonderful assets of the UP, unless you are a local or are really knowledgeable about region,” NI’s West said.

Steve Yencich of the Michigan Lodging and Tourism Association says his membership has good feelings for the coming year:

“Pretty much without exception, they are looking forward to season; looking forward to an increase overall, though everyone’s eyes are glued to the gas pump.”

Ah yes, gas prices. On Wednesday, Michigan set its second record for prices in a week, with the average gallon topping at $4.26. Similar price surges are being seen all across the Midwest. And since the vast majority of tourist trips to Michigan are based on auto travel, higher fuel prices, says Zimmermann, are “never a good thing.”

The travel exec remains sanguine about the 2011 season, however.

“The big impact isn’t cost, but psychological,” he said. “We just ask that people do the math to see what the real impact is.”